Track 2) Natural geologic, biologic, and atmospheric hazards and public health  

The Earth is a naturally dynamic world, with volcanic eruptions spewing lava and ash, earthquakes uplifting mountains, shaking the surface and forming tsunami that sweep across ocean basins at hundred of miles per hour and rising in huge waves on distant shores. Mountains may suddenly collapse burying entire villages, and slopes are gradually creeping downhill moving everything built on them. Storms sweep coastlines and remove millions of tons of sand from one place and deposit it in another in single days. Large parts of the globe are turning into desert, and glaciers that once advanced are rapidly retreating. Sea level is beginning to rise faster than previously imagined, and global warming is causing increased severity of storms with increased flood and wind damage. Advances in science and engineering in recent decades have dramatically changed the way we view natural hazards. In the past we viewed destructive natural phenomena including earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, floods, landslides and tsunami as unavoidable and unpredictable. Society’s attention to basic scientific research has changed that view dramatically, and we are now able to make general predictions of when, where, and how severe such destructive natural events may be, reducing their consequences significantly.

We are therefore able to plan evacuations, strengthen buildings, and make detailed plans of what needs to be done in natural disasters to such a degree that the costs of these natural geological hazards have been greatly reduced. This greater understanding has come with increased governmental responsibility. In the past, society placed little blame on government for the consequences of natural disasters. For instance, nearly 10,000 people perished in a hurricane that hit Galveston, Texas on September 8, 1900, yet since there were no warning systems in place, no one was at blame. In 2001, two feet of rain with consequent severe flooding hit the same area, and nobody perished. However, billions of dollars worth of insurance claims were filed. Now, few disasters now go without blame being placed on public officials, engineers, or planners. Our extensive warning systems, building codes, and understanding have certainly prevented the loss of thousands of lives, yet they also give us a false sense of security. This phenomena was dramatically and tragically illustrated by Hurricane Katrina, when residents were told they would be safe building on flood plains and in sub-sea level drained coastal marshes, only to find that the infrastructure was not as strong as politicians advocated. Flood plains are the most hazardous of geological environments in terms of the number of lives lost in disasters.

When an earthquake, hurricane, or other disaster strikes, we expect our homes to be safe, yet they are only built to be safe to a certain level of flooding, wind, or shaking. When a natural geological hazard exceeds the expected level, a natural disaster with great destruction may result, and we blame the government for not anticipating the event. What can be done? Planning and construction efforts are only designed to meet certain levels of force for earthquakes and other hazards, and planning for the rare stronger events would be exorbitantly expensive. One of the main recommendations of the Earth Observation Summit held in Japan in April 2004 was to increase international cooperation and monitoring of geological hazards and climate change. Faculty in departments affiliated with the center have expertise in geologic and seismic hazards, weather hazards, and planning for disaster aversion and relief. Much of this can be done in collaboration with SLU scientists at the St. Louis University Earthquake Center (http://www.eas.slu.edu/Earthquake_Center/), tectonics and hazards lab (http://www.eas.slu.edu/People/TMKusky/index.html) and in the COMET lab ( http://www.eas.slu.edu/Comet/trop.html) for severe storms research, both housed in the Dept. of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences. Our group of geologists, atmospheric scientists, climate modelers, and urban planners offers a unique group for students to learn the scientific and social aspects of trying to prevent natural Earth processes from becoming disasters, and what to do when hazardous Earth processes affect communities.

Disaster planning has entered a new dimension in the USA since 9/11. Now, scientist and urban planners are also involved with planning mass evacuations of urban areas that might be needed in the event of major chemical, biological, or nuclear attacks by terrorist groups. Similar scenarios and computer models can be used for planning for both natural and unnatural disasters, so there is likely to be some overlap between the natural hazards group and homeland security issues.